Market Recovery Program
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Chapter 3
HOW LONG WILL THE RECOVERY TAKE?
What’s the next essential to discuss?
How long it will take the Dow or the S&P 500 index to get us back to where we were before the downturn: a year? 2? 5? 10 years? 20 years?
Why is this an important consideration?
If we’re convinced that the recovery will take a short period of time -- say, only 6 months -- then we may conclude that it’s best to just leave our money where it is now, in our current equity position(s), and let the market take its course.
I suppose I would want to know how long it’s taken previous bear markets to recover to their pre-downturn levels…
There have been 14 bear markets since the start of the Great Depression and they‘ve lasted anywhere from 6 months to 25 years. The Great Crash of 1929 which lead to the Great Depression didn’t recover to its pre-Crash level until 1954. That’s 25 years. Take a look at Figure 1.
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