Why is knowing whether we’ve yet reached the bottom an
important factor?
If we can determine with any certainty where we currently are regarding the
bottoming-out of the market then that can and should influence whether we stay
in the equity positions we are currently holding. If we’re convinced the bottom
hasn’t been reached yet, it may be wise to get out of equities and then return
once we feel the bottom is reached.
Has the bottom of the downturn been reached yet?
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average lost over 50% of its value from October 2007 to
February, 2009.
During the Great Depression, the bottom was only reached once the Dow lost about
85% of its value. Have we already reached the bottom and we’re now on the way
back to recovery? Or do we still have a way to go to reach bottom?
I certainly don’t have the answer. But, you, the person who is going to make a
decision regarding the course of action to take, needs to consider which
possibility has the greatest chance of occurring and then weigh that factor
along with the other considerations discussed here.